Related Insights
This week’s featured insight is our DBS GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter. We currently produce Nowcasts for GDP growth in China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore. Today we focus on India’s 4Q real GDP, released last week. Based on India’s rebased GDP series, real GDP rose 7.8%yoy in Oct-Dec25 (3QFY26) from 8.4% in Jul-Sep25. This quarter benefitted from indirect tax rationalization, festive demand, firmer investment activity, and improved rural farm outcomes. The rebased series also suggests a modest but meaningful firming in activity in FY26. Real GDP growth for FY26 was revised up to 7.6% from the first advance estimate of 7.4%, broadly converging toward our 7.7% forecast.
As per our Nowcast model, growth is expected to moderate to 7.2% in 1Q26. The slowdown in Q1 growth will mostly be driven by weak industrial activity, freight traffic, exports of goods and moderation in passenger and commercial vehicle sales. We expect full year growth to average 6.5% (CY26), with upside risks, from 7.8%.
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The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
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DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
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