Global Technology: Resilient Fundamentals Amid Market Turbulence
Enduring earnings growth creates opportunities for long-term investors willing to look through near-term noise
Chief Investment Office, Yeang Cheng Ling2 Apr 2026
  • Current tech drawdown reflects dual shock from "SaaS-pocalypse" and geopolitical risk-off pressures
  • Compute demand, resilient earnings, and push for AI self-sufficiency provide structural tailwinds
  • Be selective on software and avoid narrow, pure-play SaaS vendors
  • Remain constructive on upstream semiconductors and AI infrastructure beneficiaries
  • Maintain conviction in integrated Big Tech players across both Western and Eastern hemispheres
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Turbulent times for technology. The global technology sector has been under sustained pressure since the start of the year with NASDAQ down more c.7% (as at 31 Mar). Two forces have driven this correction. Firstly, the conundrum of the “SaaS‑pocalypse” has exerted persistent selling pressure on the software segment of technology. Secondly, at the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered a broader risk‑off environment, prompting profit‑taking across global equities. Concerns around AI-driven disruption have led markets to question the durability of certain software business models, particularly narrow, pure‑play SaaS vendors. The central question for investors is whether the current market sell-off represents a short‑term valuation correction or the start of a deeper, more lasting de-rating for the technology sector—we are far more inclined to view it as the former.

Semiconductor and leading-edge thesis remain compelling; select opportunities in software. Despite recent volatility, the structural thesis underpinning the hardware and semiconductor segments of technology remains compelling and in many respects (or aspects), continues to strengthen. Ongoing AI adoption is driving outsized demand for compute with demand still materially outpacing both existing and planned supply. This imbalance is most clearly reflected in rising DRAM and NAND prices as industry capacity is increasingly reallocated towards high‑bandwidth memory required for AI workloads.

On the software side, the opportunity set is undeniably more nuanced. AI agents and automation tools pose headwinds to certain segments, particularly niche software with limited ecosystem depth and shallow integration. Importantly, this dynamic reflects dispersion rather than extinction. Mission‑critical, deeply integrated software platforms continue to see strong use cases and attractive long-term growth prospects.

Continued resilience in technology earnings. In addition to an intact thesis, recent earnings results from the technology sector have also demonstrated resilience. Big Tech companies continue to deliver solid revenue and earnings growth and in many cases, constructive forward earnings guidance. Notably, hyperscalers, in particular, are maintaining elevated capital expenditure plans, underscoring sustained confidence in long-term AI demand.

That said, we do not dismiss the risk of near-term earnings revisions should macro conditions deteriorate further as growth concerns and renewed inflation risks from geopolitical tensions could weigh on margins. Even so, history offers perspective. The technology sector has demonstrated a remarkable ability to sustain long-term earnings growth through major downturns, including the Covid-19 shock, trade tariffs, and rates-driven meltdown in 2022. While margins may compress temporarily and weaker players may face existential threats from subsequent market shake-ups, the sector, as a whole, remains relevant in driving innovations and a critical pillar of global economic growth.

The sovereign bid for AI supremacy. In the longer term, the sovereign race for AI self‑sufficiency will continue to drive growth across technology verticals. As global fragmentation intensifies, nations are increasingly alert to the strategic and geopolitical vulnerabilities associated with external reliance on AI infrastructure and capabilities. In response, nation states are driven to commit substantial resources to build domestic AI hardware and software capabilities. This sovereign push is set to unlock significant multi‑year investment across the AI value chain. The beneficiaries extend beyond Big Tech incumbents to include full‑stack AI players in Asia, particularly in China. Unlike some Developed Market counterparts, Chinese technology champions operate with materially fewer constraints around power availability and funding, positioning them favourably to execute large‑scale AI build‑outs.

Stay vigilant but invested. Technology, as a sector, will continue to experience periodic market cycles as macro backdrops evolve and fresh technological inventions and disruptions interchangeably emerge. Nonetheless, its enduring role in driving productivity, innovation, and economic growth remains intact. We continue to advocate maintaining a sizeable exposure to technology which we view as among the highest quality long-term growth compounders. Selectivity, however, is increasingly crucial as divergence between winners and losers accelerates.

Our current positioning in the technology space is as follows:

  • Selective on software, avoiding narrow, pure‑play SaaS vendors lacking ecosystem depth, integration, or defensible moats.
  • Constructive on upstream leading-edge semiconductors and AI infrastructure beneficiaries which are well‑positioned to capture overall compute demand alongside the growing sovereign AI push.
  • Equipment makers where the creation and production of advance chips will drive relentless procurement of leading-edge devices in the build-up of capacity.
  • Maintain conviction in integrated Big Tech players across both Western and Eastern hemispheres.
In periods of heightened uncertainty, market narratives and investors’ reactions often overshoot underlying fundamentals. The recent sell-off suggests investors have already front‑loaded earnings risk with technology stocks correcting ahead of fundamentals. This pre‑emptive repricing has effectively built a valuation buffer, leaving the sector better cushioned against potential earnings downgrades should they materialise.

In our view, the recent pullback reflects sentiment-driven volatility rather than structural erosion, creating opportunities for long‑term investors willing to look through near‑term noise.


Figure 1: Risk-off pressures weigh on technology with software lagging

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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