Global Airlines: Holding Firm Against the Fuel Shock
Airlines showed resilient demand in 2Q26, favouring US pricing power and APAC tailwinds
Chief Investment Office13 Aug 2026
  • Airlines weathered 2Q26 better than feared despite elevated fuel costs
  • Resilient load factors suggested limited demand destruction across regions
  • US airlines led on pricing amid sharp fare increases
  • APAC benefited from transit and cargo tailwinds; Europe lagged
  • We prefer US pricing power and APAC transit and cargo exposure
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash
Read More

Airlines navigated a highly volatile 2Q26 better than feared, with passengers showing limited resistance to higher fares. The June MOU initially raised hopes of de-escalation before tensions re-escalated, although recent diplomatic progress has once again improved prospects for a more durable ceasefire or interim agreement. Geopolitical uncertainty remains, but jet fuel prices have fallen materially from their conflict-driven peaks, easing immediate cost pressure. More importantly, airlines across North America, Europe, and APAC have generally raised fares without triggering meaningful demand destruction. North America saw the strongest fare increases, APAC network carriers also achieved firmer pricing, while Europe remained more constrained by competition. Load factors have nevertheless held up across all three regions, reinforcing our view that underlying travel demand remains healthy and airlines still have scope to pass through elevated costs.

2Q26 performance diverged sharply, with US airlines showing the strongest pricing power while cargo-heavy APAC carriers benefitted from additional freight tailwinds. North American network carriers recorded high single-digit to low double-digit passenger yield growth, supported by favourable supply-demand dynamics and tighter capacity following Spirit Airlines’ exit, allowing them to recapture around 50-60% of the incremental fuel headwind. Europe was more challenging, as heavier fuel hedging reduced the urgency for immediate fare increases while intense competition weighed on pricing, particularly among LCCs. European network carriers fared better, although recovery varied materially, with Air France-KLM recapturing around 85% of incremental fuel costs versus roughly 60% at IAG and Lufthansa. In APAC, network carriers with greater cargo exposure outperformed as disruptions in the Middle East redirected passenger traffic and constrained competing freight capacity, while robust AI-related shipments supported air freight rates.

We prefer US pricing power and APAC transit and cargo exposure in the near term. The US offers the clearest path to further margin recovery as additional repricing flows through the booking curve, with some carriers targeting full fuel-cost recovery by year-end. European carriers remain less upbeat, with guidance generally implying only partial recovery as competitive intensity limits further fare increases. In APAC, we expect the transit benefit to persist even if geopolitical tensions ease, as travellers, particularly premium passengers, may take time to regain confidence in Middle Eastern routings. Cargo provides an additional tailwind, with sustained AI infrastructure investment supporting high-value air freight demand. The key sector-wide risk remains another sharp rise in jet fuel prices, especially as current recovery expectations were formed against more benign forward curves. Overall, we continue to see the best risk-reward in US pricing power and APAC transit and cargo exposure.

Figure 1: Electrical equipment demand (units)

Note: FSC= Full-service carriers, LCC= Low-cost carriers
Source: Companies, DBS


Download the PDF to read the full report.

Topic

Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

This information is for your private use only and may not be passed on, reposted or reproduced. The contents of this information are strictly confidential and are not transferrable, assignable or meant for reissuance to any third party, whether in whole or in part.

This information does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for accounting, legal or tax advice.

The information herein may be incomplete or condensed and it may not include a number of terms and provisions nor does it identify or define all or any of the risks associated to any actual transaction. Any terms, conditions and opinions contained herein may have been obtained from various sources and neither DBS nor any of their respective directors or employees (collectively the “DBS Group”) make any warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness and thus assume no responsibility of it. The information herein may be subject to further revision, verification and updating and DBS Group undertakes no responsibility thereof.

All investments involve risks and you can lose part or all of your investment. You should carefully read the product offering documentation and any product terms before making any investment. If you have any doubt, please seek independent professional advice or otherwise you should carefully consider whether any product mentioned in this publication is suitable for you.  Any investment product(s) mentioned herein is/are not the only product(s) that is/are aligned with views stated herein and may not be the most preferred or suitable product for you. There are other investment product(s) available in the market which may better suit your investment profile, objectives and financial situation.

DBS or persons/entities connected to the DBS Group may, or in the future, have interests in and may affect transactions in the underlying product(s) mentioned. Companies connected to DBS may have arrangements with the issuer(s) of the underlying product(s) to market or sell its product(s). Where any company within the DBS Group is the product provider, such company may be receiving fees from the investors. In addition, companies within the DBS Group may also perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services to the issuers or the related companies.

DBS Group does not make any warranty as to this information’s accuracy, timeliness, adequacy or completeness for any particular purpose, and thus accepts no responsibility for any losses whatsoever arising from or in connection with the use or reliance on this information and any related documents. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and future results may not meet your expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors. This information is subject to change without notice. All figures and amounts stated are for illustration purposes only and shall not bind DBS Group.

If this information has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. 

This information is not directed to, or intended for distribution to anyone who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

This publication has not been reviewed or authorised by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai International Financial Centre, Thailand, or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating the information discussed in this publication.

If any specific product(s) are mentioned herein, such investment product(s) is/are are not the only product(s) that is/are aligned with the views stated in the research report(s) and may not be the most preferred or suitable product for you. There are other investment product(s) available in the market which may better suit your investment profile, objectives and financial situation.

The English version of all documents shall apply and prevail over that in other languages that may be provided for your reference.

Dubai International Financial Centre
This communication is provided to you as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty as defined in the DFSA Rulebook Conduct of Business Module (the "COB Module"), and should not be relied upon or acted on by any person which does not meet the criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty under the DFSA rules.

This communication is from the branch of DBS Bank Ltd operating in the Dubai International Financial Centre (the "DIFC") under the trading name "DBS Bank Ltd. (DIFC Branch)" ("DBS DIFC"), registered with the DIFC Registrar of Companies under number 156 and having its registered office at units 608 - 610, 6th Floor, Gate Precinct Building 5, PO Box 506538, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

DBS DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the "DFSA") with a DFSA reference number F000164.

Where this communication contains a research report, this research report is prepared by the entity referred to therein, which may be DBS Bank Ltd or a third party, and is provided to you by DBS DIFC. The research report has not been reviewed or authorised by the DFSA. Such research report is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information contained within is believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified by DBS DIFC.

Unless otherwise indicated, this communication does not constitute an "Offer of Securities to the Public" as defined under Article 12 of the Markets Law (DIFC Law No.1 of 2012) or an "Offer of a Unit of a Fund" as defined under Article 19(2) of the Collective Investment Law (DIFC Law No.2 of 2010).

The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying this communication or any associated documents in connection with this investment and it is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this communication or any other associated documents in connection with this investment nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this communication or any associated documents, and has no responsibility for them. The DFSA has not assessed the suitability of any investments to which the communication relates and, in respect of any Islamic investments (or other investments identified to be Shari'a compliant), neither we nor the DFSA has determined whether they are Shari'a compliant in any way.

Any investments which this communication relates to may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on any investments. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial adviser.


Hong Kong
This publication is distributed by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (CE Number: AAL664) (“DBSHK”) which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (the "HKMA") and the Securities and Futures Commission. In Hong Kong, DBS Private Bank is the private banking division of DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited.

To the extent that DBSHK does not solicit the sale of or recommend any financial product to you or where any service is provided as a transactional execution service, DBSHK is not acting as your investment adviser or in a fiduciary capacity to you. If DBSHK solicits the sale of or recommends any financial product to you, the financial product must be reasonably suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives. No other provision of this document or any other document DBSHK may ask you to sign and no statement DBSHK may ask you to make derogates from this clause.

In any case, DBSHK has not given and will not give any representation, guarantee or other assurance as to the outcome of any investment based on the information provided.  “Financial product” means any securities, futures contracts or leveraged foreign exchange contracts as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571 of the Laws of Hong Kong).  Regarding “leveraged foreign exchange contracts”, it is only applicable to those traded by persons licensed for Type 3 regulated activity. The Information has not been reviewed or authorised by the HKMA, or any regulatory authority elsewhere.

This publication is provided to you as a “Professional Investor” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong).

DBSHK is not the issuer of the research report unless otherwise stated therein. Such research report is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information contained within is believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified by DBSHK.


India
This document is provided by DBS Bank India Ltd. (“DBIL”) for information purpose only, on “as is” basis. It does not create any legally binding obligations on DBIL. This document is not intended to be source of advice in respect of the material presented or information published, and shall not be construed to be legal, tax, financial or investment advisory. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation, recommendation or solicitation to enter into any transaction in relation to any of the products and services mentioned herein. DBIL does not make any warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of completeness, accuracy of information, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This document has not been registered and/or approved by any governmental or regulatory authority in any jurisdiction including but not limited to the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the Reserve Bank of India or any other governmental or regulatory body in India.

Indonesia
This publication is distributed by PT Bank DBS Indonesia (DBSI). DBSI is licensed and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK). This publication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to you to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction as described, nor is it calculated to invite or permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction for cash or other consideration and should not be viewed as such. The Customer should not rely on the information set out herein as the sole basis for any financial decision.


Singapore
This publication is distributed by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) ("DBS") which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (the "MAS").

This publication is provided to you as an “Accredited Investor” (defined under the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore and the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018) or an “Institutional Investor” (defined under the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore and the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018) for your private use only and may not be passed on or disclosed to any person nor copied or reproduced in any manner.


Thailand
This publication is distributed by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. (“DBSVT”).

The information contained in this publication is not intended to be either an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, derivatives, or any other financial products or services, provide financial advice or investment advice, facilitate or take deposits, or provide any other financial products or financial services of any kind in any jurisdiction. This publication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be construed as, advice.

This publication has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Thailand and has not been registered as a prospectus with the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand. Accordingly, any documents and materials, in connection with the offer or sale, or invitation for subscription or purchase of the securities, derivatives, or any other financial products or services, may only be circulated or distributed by an entity as permitted by applicable laws and regulations. DBS and DBSVT does not have any intention to solicit you for any investment or subscription in the securities, derivatives, or any other financial products or services, and any such solicitation will be made by an entity permitted by applicable laws and regulations.