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Stocks to Watch
Expedia Group
Booking Holdings’ soft US results cast a shadow on Expedia
Revenue growth forecasts (%)
Company Name | Ticker | CY-2024 | CY-2025 | CY-2026 | CY-2027 |
BKNG_US | 11.11% | 9.59% | 8.56% | 8.73% | |
EXPE | 6.64% | 3.60% | 6.27% | 7.11% |
EBITDA growth forecasts (%)
Company Name | Ticker | CY-2024 | CY-2025 | CY-2026 | CY-2027 |
BKNG_US | 16.79% | 13.27% | 11.95% | 12.30% | |
EXPE | 9.48% | 7.72% | 8.83% | 10.22% |
- Booking Holdings’ US growth continued to lag other regions in 2Q25, highlighting regional disparities
- US room night growth was up low single digits, trailing Europe and rest-of-the-world’s high single-digit gains and Asia’s robust low double-digit jump
- Signs of a more value-conscious US traveler was also evident this quarter
- Lower average daily rates and shorter stays reflect increased price sensitivity, suggesting travelers are trimming budgets amid economic uncertainty
- Booking Holdings also reported tighter booking windows, indicating consumers’ reluctance to commit far in advance
- Booking Holdings' soft US trends could be an early read-through for Expedia’s upcoming results, given Expedia’s significantly higher revenue exposure to the US market (around 60% vs Booking's 10%)
- Consensus forecasts for Expedia’s CY25/26 revenue and EBITDA growth currently lag Booking Holdings, reflecting investor concerns over its US market concentration
- Unless Expedia can offset this with international gains or market share growth, its near-term performance may trail peers with more diversified revenue bases
ESR REIT – Earnings (+), TP (+)
Core strengthening exercise yielding results
- 1H25 DPU of 11.239 Scts consists mainly of core earnings; in line with our FY25 projections
- Strong positive rental reversions of +9.7% in 1H25 to drive core profits
- Overall financing costs have improved c.40bps since the start of the year, and is expected to continue improving
- Maintain BUY with slightly higher TP of SGD3.20
Hotel Properties Ltd
- HPL reportedly in talks to sell majority stakes in Forum mall and voco Orchard hotel, while retaining ownership of HPL House
- This will allow HPL to crystallise the value without taking on the full development and execution risk
- Assuming up to a 75% stake sale, we estimate up to SGD 3.49/share potential
- Share price up close to 50% since our report in May'25; redevelopment of 3 assets to lift RNAV to SGD10.00 from SGD7.30/share
Keppel REIT
- 1H25 DPU of 2.72 Scts was slightly below our estimates due mainly to partial payment of manager’s fees in cash; would have been in line otherwise
- Sustained strong positive rental reversions of +12.3% for the portfolio, and Singapore continues to underpin overall portfolio performance
- Gearing and borrowing costs reported marginal improvement q/q
- Maintain BUY with TP of SGD1.10
Far East Hospitality
Tourist downtrading continues to bite
- 1H gross revenue declined 4.2% y/y to SGD51.6m; DPU declined 9% y/y to 1.78 Scts and in line with our estimates
- SG hotels and SR saw RevPAR declines of 5.7% and 6.5% respectively on lower MICE uplift and higher hotel supply
- High floating rate and JPY debt undertaken for Nagoya acquisition saw a 30bps h/h decline in borrowing cost to 3.40%
- Maintain BUY with TP of SGD0.75
CDL Hospitality
Missing earnings on soft operational performance
- Adjusted DPS missed expectations, falling 21.1% y/y to 1.98 cents due to softer NPI and ramp-up costs at The Castings
- Singapore Hotels RevPAR dipped 14.2% y/y amid a strong base effect and weak corporate demand; UK and Japan portfolios provided partial offset
- Management expects stronger 2H from asset stabilisation, rate cuts, and tourism tailwinds, though macro and supply-side risks linger
- TP and recommendation under review
AEM Holdings
Key takeaways from analyst briefing on change of CEO
- The decision to appoint a new CEO was unanimous at the board level and mutual with outgoing CEO Amy
- Leadership transition is well-received by customers, with no change in strategy or customer confidence
- New CEO Samer Kabbani brings strong operational continuity and execution credibility
- Maintain BUY with TP SGD2.10
Keppel Infrastructure Trust
1H25 results not inspiring, distributable income lags expectations
- 1H25 DPU in line at SGD1.97Scts, a 1% y/y increase, but cash flow generation lags
- Gearing falls below 40% level for now; higher maintenance and growth capex commitments will be watched though
- Recent divestment proceeds need to be redeployed for growth
- Maintain HOLD with TP of SGD0.45
CapitaLand China Trust
- 1H25 topline revenue declined 6.3% y/y to RMB867.6mn, led by ongoing AEI works at three retail malls and softer occupancy from business parks
- Excluding CapitaMall Yuhuating distribution, DPU declined 17.3% y/y to 2.49Scts, below estimates
- Negative reversions noted across all three business segments: retail at -2.7%, business parks -8.0%, and logistics park -24.7%
- We currently have a BUY recommendation with TP SGD0.85
FY25 results first take
- Higher 2H25 revenue (+0.7% y/y) of SGD95.8mn and flat NPI at SGD74.5mn, dragged by absence of income from divestment; excluding divestment effect, 2H25 NPI would have increased 0.6% y/y
- Portfolio remains close to full occupancy at 94.6%; except Australia (86.9%), properties in its remaining countries are fully occupied
- Healthy capital structure with 1) steady leverage at 36%, 2) 76% of borrowings hedged to fixed rates, and 3) cost of debt falling to 3.67% from 3.87%
- We currently have a BUY recommendation with TP SGD0.68
Legend
| (+) | (-) |
Earnings | Positive earnings revision | Negative earnings revision |
Recommendation | Upgrade | Downgrade |
TP | Increase | Decrease |
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