DBS Stock Pulse: (1) Potential winners and losers of the proposed 100% US tariff on semiconductor imports (2) Yangzijiang - tactical reaction to positive earnings (3) HK equity picks – Replace Tongcheng (780 HK) with CALB (3931 HK)
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Group Research - Equities7 Aug 2025
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Trending Sector

Global Semiconductor Stocks

Potential winners and losers of the proposed 100% US tariff on semiconductor imports

  • What’s new: The US plans to implement a 100% tariff on semiconductor chips imported from countries that do not manufacture in the US or have no plans to establish production there (Reuters)
  • The tariff has not been formally enacted, and specifics remain unclear, creating ambiguity around the overall tariff impact
  • To evaluate the impact, we assess the situation from multiple key angles, considering company exposure, investment plans, and supply chain dynamics
  • Potential winners: Companies with an established US presence and confirmed expansion plans, and significant US exposure are best positioned to benefit most from tariff exemptions (e.g Intel, TSMC, Micron)
  • Nvidia and AMD, while fabless, are well-positioned to benefit from potential tariff exemptions given their strong US presence and alignment with foundry partners investing in US manufacturing capacity
  • Equipment makers (AMAT, Lam Research)  could see upside from accelerated US capex cycles as global players move to localise production
  • Electronics companies with US manufacturing commitments (Apple) are also insulated from tariffs
  • Potential loser: Conversely, companies (SMIC) with no US presence and no plans to increase investment but with meaningful US exposure will likely bear the brunt of the full tariff
  • Potential neutral: SG listed companies that have a local-for-local model and/or customers who have US presence with confirmed expansion plans are likely to be shielded from semiconductor sectoral tariffs (UMS, Frencken, AEM, GVT)

Hong Kong Equity Picks

CALB: Potential stronger-than-expected orders

We replace Tongcheng (780 HK) with CALB (3931 HK) at HKD20.3 in our Hong Kong top picks. The battery manufacturer is well positioned to receive stronger-than-expected orders from both global and Chinese EV makers and is likely to continue gaining market share in 2025. Our analyst Tina Hu expects CALB’s attributable profit to grow at a 89% CAGR during FY24-26F, backed by strong volume growth from major customers and margin improvements. The company may also benefit from China’s ongoing anti-involution campaign, which could drive further market consolidation. The recent pullback in share price offers a tactical opportunity to accumulate ahead of the interim results season, with a medium-term investment horizon in mind.

Stocks to Watch

Yangzijiang

1H results first look – beat expectations

  • Net profit rose 37% y/y and 17% q/q to RMB4.18bn, above consensus forecast by 15-20%, revenue was flattish at RMB12.88bn
  • Earnings outperformance was driven by 5.5ppt margin expansion to 35.2%
  • Order wins declined to USD23.2bn from a high of USD24.4bn in end-2024
  • Stock trades at undemanding valuation of 6.5X PE, 1.6X P/B at 28% ROE
  • Tactical: Stock is likely to rise in reaction to the better earnings, to SGD2.82-2.93 based on Fibonacci projections, which could also turn out to be near-term resistance levels
  • We currently have a SGD3.80 TP, consensus 12-mth fair value SGD3.28

 

Suntec REIT – Earnings (+), Recommendation (+), TP(+)

Re-rating catalyst in sight

  • Upgrade to BUY with a TP of SGD1.40
  • Tailwinds from declining interest rates; every 50bps savings in financing costs will lead to c.10% upside to DPUs
  • Strategic review will be a major catalyst for the re-rating of SUN
  • Value unlocking will strengthen balance sheet and set SUN back on the growth path

StarHub – Earnings (-), TP (-), Recommendation (-)

Hold for 5% yield and potential for sector consolidation

  • We lower FY25F/26F earnings by 12%/8% due to intense mobile competition also evident from M1’s results
  • High likelihood of sector consolidation in the next 12-15 months; M1’s profitability is already under intense pressure with the bulk of its profits coming from Circles.Life
  • Downgrade StarHub to HOLD with a revised TP of SGD1.20; potential divestment of Ensign in the near term to support the share price

Venture – TP (+)

Resilience amid soft demand

  • 1H25 results in line, slight improvement in net margin to 9.0%; special dividend of 5 Scts declared
  • 2Q25 showed broad-based q/q recovery, excluding the consumer lifestyle segment
  • Lifestyle segment expected to remain weak near term, with a new product launch as the key catalyst for a potential turnaround
  • Maintain HOLD call with higher TP of SGD13.60

UOB

2Q25 results first take

  • NII declined 3% q/q cushioned by asset growth; Group NIM declined 9bps q/q (1Q25: stable q/q)
  • Net fee income of SGD636m (+3% y/y, -8% q/q), cards offset decline in other fees, wealth fees affected by cautious approach amid macro uncertainties
  • Credit cost lower q/q at SGD274m, 32bps (4Q25: SGD289m, 35bps). General allowance performing loans coverage stable at 0.8%.
  • We have a HOLD call with TP SGD32.70

 

 

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