
The USD’s price action overnight was a classic case of “headline spike, data fade.” The DXY Index initially rose 0.4% to 98.86 on the Venezuela geopolitical shock but the move lacked follow-through and quickly stalled as attention returned to US macro fundamentals. The turning point was the softer-than-expected December ISM manufacturing PMI which slipped to 47.9 – its worst level since September 2024 – defying expectations for a rise to 48.4 from 48.2 in November. New orders and employment remained firmly contractionary at 47.7 and 44.9, while prices paid were unchanged at 58.5, undershooting expectations for a modest uptick to 58.7. Taken together, the data undercut the USD’s upside by keeping Fed easing expectations intact and underscoring that geopolitical risk alone was insufficient to sustain a stronger USD with supportive US data. DXY ended the overnight session 0.1% lower at 98.323.
Within the DXY basket of currencies, GBP staged the strongest rebound, ending overnight 0.6% higher against the USD at 1.3542, up from the session’s low of 1.3414. GBP stabilized earlier after UK consumer credit grew 8.1% YoY in November while October was revised higher to 7.5% from 7.2%. GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.3350 followed a close 5-4 vote by the Bank of England to lower rates by 25 bps to 3.75% on December 18, alongside guidance that further easing in 2026 would be limited and gradual.
JPY recovered after the USD’s haven appeal subsided. USD/JPY retreated lower to 156.38 from an intra-day high of 157.30. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed that the central bank would continue normalizing monetary policy on the back of wage-led inflation. While markets are not expecting a policy move at the January 22-23 meeting, attention will focus on the accompanying BOJ’s quarterly outlook report. Beyond its assessment of inflation risks stemming from the JPY’s weakness, investors will watch how closely the BOJ aligns with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s view that Japan was entering a critical transition from deflation to a growth-driven economy. If the Takaichi administration can alter the market’s perception of fiscal stimulus from a debt-financing risk towards growth credibility, the JPY may gradually move from a stagflation discount to a reflation premium.
Quote of the Day
“Many people mistake our work for our vocation. Our vocation is the love of Jesus.”
Mother Teresa
January 6 in history
In 1929, Mother Teresa arrived by sea in Calcutta, India, to begin her work among India's poorest and sick people.



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