USD Rates: When energy is the source of volatility
Energy-led volatility.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow4 Mar 2026
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Fears of a further spike in energy costs rattled markets, driving a different variant of risk aversion. The biggest assumption for a contained fallout from this conflict is that oil and gas flows would resume once the US ends its operation (widely expected to be a few weeks). However, this assumption took a hit after several Protection & Indemnity Clubs withdrew war risk insurance for ships travelling through the Arabian gulf. Without this insurance, shipping in the region would still be heavily curtailed even if the conflict ends. As investors assessed this risk, Brent briefly pushed towards USD 85/bbl before some respite appeared (oil fell back to USD 81/bbl) after President Trump announced that the Development Finance Corp would provide insurance for ships transiting in the Straits of Hormuz with the navy possibly providing escort if needed. Addressing this issue reduced the risk that oil supply of the region would be drastically reduced for an extended period due to maritime transport frictions. However, it may mean that the US navy may have to be deployed there for some time.

That said, oil and gas prices are both meaningfully higher than they were a week ago (15% higher for Brent and 263% for TTF).Within the commodities space, there was a violent rotation from metals into energy with gold (and silver) both providing no respite in this risk-off. US Treasuries are conflicted. Inflation expectations are climbing and this is leading investors to demand higher yields across the curve. However, this must be balanced against haven demand nudging yields lower. Investors are probably assessing that the US economy will be able to handle oil prices around current levels. Moreover, the US is the top producers of oil and gas. Brent crude prices above USD 100/bbl could serve as a warning signal where US domestic demand may start to get hampered.  

The same cannot be said for many Asian economies which are net energy importers. Asian assets (across govvies, equities and currencies) have sold off generally and performed worse than the US. This underperformance makes sense in so far as current account dynamics would likely deteriorate. Industries which are sensitive to power costs would also be impacted. 

The upshot is that energy prices are likely to be elevated for a while as supply gets restrained. The extent of damage (infrastructure) and duration of the conflict (impeding transport) are the two critical watch points now that Trump is taking steps to address insurance and security worries. We reiterate that the UST curve would be flattish in the near term amidst ongoing inflation concerns but should re-steepen once energy angst fade.    



Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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