This week’s featured insight is GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter. We currently produce Nowcasts for GDP growth in China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore. Today we focus on China’s 1Q real GDP. As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth is projected to improve to 4.7% in 1Q from 4.5% in Q4 last year. Monthly data releases for Jan-Feb show that China has started 2026 on a solid footing. Growth in Q1 will be supported by strong industrial activity and external demand for Chinese goods, while consumption remained broadly stable. Investment and credit demand stayed subdued, weighed down by the ongoing capacity reduction campaign and persistent stress in the property sector. We expect China’s annual GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (5.0% in 2025). Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices, specifically Brent averaging USD100 in rest of the year, present mild downside risks to China's growth, potentially leading to a 0.5ppt fall in GDP.
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The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
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DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
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