Related Insights
Vietnamese financial markets and the economy have been under strain since late-February due to the energy shock stemming from the Iran-centred Middle East conflict. The Vietnamese dong has depreciated again to the weak end of its trading band against the US dollar and could test its lifetime low of 26,400 per USD again. VND interbank rates remain elevated amid tight domestic liquidity and are facing upside inflationary pressures. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.7% yoy in March 2026 - the highest in about three years (since January 2023) - exceeding the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s 4.5% average inflation target for 2026. This was primarily driven by a sharp 10.8% yoy surge in transport inflation in March (from -3.2% yoy in February), following spikes in global and domestic energy prices. Vietnam is exposed as an overall net oil importer with concentrated reliance on Middle East supplies, particularly from Kuwait. To cushion the impact of the energy price shock, the government has proactively implemented emergency measures, including tax cuts, utilisation of the stabilisation fund, and energy conservation initiatives. With price pressures likely to remain elevated in the near term, we are raising our 2026 average headline inflation forecast to 3.8%, from 3.3%, and see upside uncertainty if the Iran war is prolonged and spills over into other price categories.
Economic growth moderated to a still-resilient 7.8% yoy in 1Q26, from the exceptional above 8% yoy expansion recorded over the past three quarters, with the export-oriented economy facing renewed external challenges from the Middle East war. While electronics exports continue to benefit from global artificial intelligence (AI)-related tailwinds, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March indicates initial challenges from the Iran war. Rising output prices, passed on from higher freight, fuel, and transportation costs, are beginning to weigh on international demand and export orders. Nonetheless, should inflation rise further and be persistent, there are upside risks to our 2026 refinancing rate forecast of 4.50%, as the SBV may be forced to hike its policy rates to safeguard macroeconomic stability over growth ambitions.
Topic
Explore more
E & S Macro StrategyGENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates & Digital Assets)
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply. The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.