USD rallies as Trump celebrates US-UK trade deal
USD recovers ahead of US-China trade talks.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang9 May 2025
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Trump has hailed the US-UK trade agreement announced yesterday as “an historic trade deal”. In fact, it was quite limited in scope, applying only to steel, autos, and agricultural products, while keeping Trump’s 10% baseline tariff. But harping on the limited nature of the deal is beside the point—this deal marks the first reduction in tariffs under Trump’s second term, providing a shot in the arm for the USD, with DXY rallying back above 100. The USD is likely to recover in the short-term as investors re-evaluate the change in tone on trade and the likelihood of market-friendly deals. What is clear is that Trump is now turning the narrative from widely panned “reciprocal tariffs” to blazing a path on “historic trade deals”, though it is unclear whether his “deals” could lead to a meaningful reduction in tariffs. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick has also talked up prospects of rolling out dozens of trade deals over the next month, adding that Washington now aims to de-escalate tensions with China through upcoming trade talks.

The RMB is likely to trade firmer with China Vice-Premier He (who has been appointed to lead trade negotiations with the US) meeting US Treasury Secretary Bessent for talks in Switzerland over the weekend. While positioning in the RMB has been towards the short side for a long time, we do not expect the RMB to see sharp appreciation on news of positive trade talks come Monday, unlike the TWD earlier this week. The Chinese government will continue to manage the RMB according to China’s interests. With activity remaining weak, the PBOC has opted to lower the 7D reverse repo by 10bps to 1.40% this week and cut the RRR by 50bps. A bias towards easing is incompatible with a substantially stronger RMB, though there is scope for USD/CNH to ease below 7.20 if US-China trade negotiations start off well, as they should.

USD/INR has rallied 1.4% towards 86 on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. There could be a case for RBI to lean against excessive depreciation pressures, given the relatively sharp move in INR. Yesterday, the RBI announced a relaxation of non-resident ownership rules for corporate bonds. Foreign investors will no longer face a 30% limit on their holdings of corporate bonds that mature within a year, while the concentration limit for them will also be removed. This could lead to more foreign inflows in shorter tenor corporate bonds, buffering the INR.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]




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