The Reserve Bank of India announced a tranche of INR 1trn variable rate reverse repo auction for Friday, for a second successive week. Expectations were rife that another VRRR might be announced after onshore liquidity rose above INR 3trn this week, holding the overnight weighted average call rate below the repo and closer to standing deposit facility rate (at 5.25%). Liquidity absorption steps might prevent the rate from falling below the lower end of the corridor, while keeping the overall cash balance close to 1% of net demand and time deposits. Since late-2024, operations to injection liquidity were conducted, with more infusion in the pipeline with the phased cash reserve ratio cuts that is underway and RBI dividends (as and when it is spent). If the intention is to keep the call rate above the SDF and nudge closer to the repo, a higher frequency of VRRR auctions can be expected, considering seasonal leakages as well.
An interim India-US trade deal is expected to be announced shortly, close to the heels of the US’s deal with Vietnam earlier in the week. The Indian delegation extended its stay at Washington last week, as both sides attempted to iron out contentious issues including better market access to the US to India’s farm and dairy sector, while India sought a larger market for its labour-intensive sectors like textiles, footwear etc., besides relief from reciprocal tariffs and sectoral concessions. Local press cited sources saying that few of the thorny aspects might not be immediately included in the first version of the deal, instead focusing on import duty concessions, and medium-term bilateral trade goals, with more details likely for the second edition later in the year. There is scope for a reduction in the umbrella tariff rate to the baseline 10%, taking cue from other agreements. After a subdued spell, rupee registered gains in trade yesterday, edging closer to 85.30 handle.
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