Eurozone rates: ECB extends wait-and-see stance, eye on trade deal
Bar raised for further cuts.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao25 Jul 2025
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The European Central Bank (ECB) took a summer break from rate cuts, along expected lines, after eight rate reductions worth 200bp to take the deposit facility rate to 2% in this cycle. Economic assessment was largely unchanged from June, with global trade tensions highlighted as the key risk to the growth outlook, besides geopolitics and weaker risk sentiments. Additional fiscal stimulus from the region, particularly Germany, is expected to impact growth favourably. The read on inflation was conducive, with readings hovering around 2% handle in recent months. Chief Lagarde signaled that the central bank was less concerned about the disinflationary impulse from a strong euro, as part of this was already factored into official projections. The bank would look past any likelihood of an undershoot in the near-term, with policy focused on the medium-term price and inflation expectations trajectory. As it stands, the bar for further rate cuts has been raised, as ECB’s guidance was perceived as hawkish at the margin. We retain our forecast for one remaining cut of 25bp, beyond summer and likely in 3Q25.
 

A bigger watch factor will the ongoing trade talks between the US and Europe, and separately China- Europe. On the latter, signs are that discussions were tense, and negotiations failed to gain much ground. Expectations for a material breakthrough were anyway limited, with pockets of contentious issues including China’s move to tighten rare earth supplies which impact Europe’s auto, and renewables sectors, and on the other end, difficult geopolitics (Russia-Ukraine ware) and restrained market access to China’s EVs, hard to resolve. Optimism on Europe’s trade deal with the US has risen since the favourable conclusion with Japan, with US President Trump’s mention of 15% as a likely tariff rate. Europeans are keen to receive sectoral relief especially on autos, besides steel and aluminium. Potential action on pharma down the line might also hurt European exports to the US. Considering the mercurial nature of trade negotiations, Europe has also readied a package of counter-tariffs, targeting more than EUR90bn imports from the US for a start, under the ACI (Anti-Coercion Instrument) umbrella.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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