CNY rates: Plenum meeting and flattening curve
Curve flattening.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse24 Oct 2025
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CNY rates held largely steady this week, with the curve continuing to flatten as long-end yields edged lower. The policymakers concluded the discussions on the 15th Five-Year Plan during the 4th Plenum meeting. China reaffirmed its goal of becoming a “moderately developed economy” by 2035, targeting GDP per capita of USD 21,000. This implies an average growth rate of around 4.5% over the next decade — a modest pace consistent with a maturing economy.

Several factors are keeping CGB yields capped:

First, soft domestic demand - The moderate growth target reflects persistent weakness in household consumption. A negative wealth effect from the property downturn continues to weigh on spending, while demographic headwinds and a rising unemployment rate add further pressure. Policy support will likely focus on boosting confidence and expanding the social safety net, with details to be unveiled in the next Two Sessions in March.

Second, investment slowdown - The communiqué highlighted the need to optimize supply amid falling prices and corporate profits. The ongoing “anti-involution” campaign has successfully curbed excess investment. Fixed Asset Investment recorded its first YoY YTD contraction since COVID, with SOE spending slowing to just 1.0%. This points to softer loan demand and a lighter supply of new bond issuance ahead.

Third, shift toward “new productive forces” - Beijing reiterated its push for industrial modernization and technological self-sufficiency. “Effective investments” in AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing are expected to rise, but these sectors are far less leverage-intensive than traditional infrastructure or property projects.

Fourth, containing local government debt risks - Authorities will spare no effort in addressing local debt challenges. Fiscal expansion at the provincial level will be tightly controlled, and manageable default risks should help anchor overall bond yields.

Beyond the Plenum meeting, markets are eyeing on US-China trade negotiation in Malaysia this weekend and South Korea next week. A temporary truce could spark equity inflows but easing trading volumes suggest any rally may be short-lived. Should investors rotate out of A-shares into safer assets like CGBs, long-end yields are likely to remain biased to the downside.

(For detailed analysis, please refer to our flash report to be published later today.)

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]




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