USD Rates: Another Fed cut / QT might end
Fed is poised for a rate cut.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow28 Oct 2025
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The Fed is poised to cut by another 25bps this week amidst loose financial conditions. Sentiment got a further boost on Monday as market participants digest the implications from the myriad of US-ASEAN trade deals / frameworks announced and gear up for a positive outcome between China-US at the APEC summit later this week. Putting data (or the lack thereof due to the government shutdown) aside, we wonder if the rapid rise in risky assets would at some point prompt a rethink in USD rates, which are still pricing in significant Fed easing (more than four Fed cuts by end-2026) over the medium term. Moreover, we also note that demand for safety has also eased up somewhat. Gold prices have been lacklustre since the plunge last week and are now hovering just below USD 4000 / oz.

The upshot is buoyant stocks are at odds with low USD rates. The frontend may be somewhat anchored by the series of Fed cuts that are to come. But doubts on further easing could start to creep in once the FFR gets to 3.5%. The long-end of the curve has more considerations with investors looking to carry trades. Investors may also be anticipating an end to QT, providing a boost to the long-end. Tightness in short-term USD rates have been apparent for some time and the ending of QT (with a tweak in the IORB plausible) is needed to stabilize repo rates. If the Fed decides to reinvest runoff from MBSs into USTs, there would be an addition bid for duration. Conversely, if the proceeds are directed into bills, there should be negligible impact on duration. That said, we are not convinced that this UST rally (and curve flattening) is sustainable. If animal spirits take over, some bear steepening would eventually take place.

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 

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