Japan markets: Staying with a December rate hike call
We still see a BOJ hike in December.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying31 Oct 2025
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The Bank of Japan maintained the overnight call rate at 0.50% at the Oct 30 meeting. Two of nine board members, Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura, reiterated their support for a 25bps hike to 0.75%, consistent with their position in September. The board made only minor adjustments to its FY25–27 economic forecasts, slightly raising the FY25 GDP growth forecast from 0.6% to 0.7%.

During the press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a data-dependent approach and refrained from signaling a timeline for the next rate hike. He highlighted the need to monitor wage and inflation dynamics, particularly how companies will set wages and prices amid a 15% tariff backdrop.

Rates: We continue to forecast a 25bps BOJ rate hike in December, taking the overnight call rate to 0.75%. Labor unions are expected to set next year’s wage negotiation targets around Nov–Dec, with Rengo already signaling a 5% wage increase target for 2026, same as this year. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a December hike may rise if the Fed holds off on a rate cut at its Dec 9–10 FOMC meeting, providing a window for the BOJ to act on Dec 18–19.

JPY: Markets have largely priced in a 25bps BOJ rate hike within 3–6 months. A December hike may give limited support to the JPY. At the same time, market expectations for Fed rate cuts are running ahead of official guidance, and a repricing could boost the dollar and weigh on the yen. Additional risks on the yen stem from fiscal policy expansion under Takaichi’s administration, which could raise concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]



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