Malaysia: BNM kept the powder dry, with global uncertainties lingering into 2026
Looking for rate cut in 1H26.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng7 Nov 2025
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Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% during its final meeting for 2025 on November 6. This steady decision for the second consecutive review came amidst resilient economic growth in 3Q, despite US tariffs, and ongoing price stability. There was little impetus to adjust interest rates, as the pre-emptive 25bps rate cut in July, aimed at preserving Malaysia’s steady growth, appeared to be bearing fruit. The authorities assessed the monetary policy stance as appropriate and supportive of the economy amidst price stability. We therefore expect continued stable short-end Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) yields in the near term.

Holding interest rates at this juncture preserves BNM’s ammunition and flexibility for further monetary policy easing, should growth conditions worsen over the coming months in 2026. The central bank flagged downside global uncertainties and risks to Malaysia’s exports-oriented economy, even as it expects resilient domestic demand from supportive household spending and investment expansion to bolster GDP growth into 2026. These include re-escalation of geopolitical tensions and the imposition of threatened US tariffs on semiconductors, which could slow world trade, and weaken sentiment if elevated financial markets correct abruptly and disorderly. Considering the potential for slower Malaysian growth due to lingering external uncertainties into 2026, we expect BNM to slightly reduce its OPR by 25bps to 2.50% in 1H26. Any monetary loosening, however, would still depend on the severity and timing of the negative shock and growth deceleration, given rapidly evolving and volatile global developments.  



Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]
 
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