USD uplifted as Fed rate cut pricing changes again
Stronger USD and JPY risks ahead of extra budget.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang20 Nov 2025
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The DXY rallied above 100 as markets now discount the probability of a Dec rate hike to under 30%, from near even odds last week.  This is because FOMC minutes released overnight showed that FOMC members have “strongly differing” views about what would be the most appropriate decision for Dec, and “many” suggested that it would be appropriate to keep the rate unchanged for the rest of the year, based on their outlook. While Sep non-farm payrolls release will resume tonight, the data is already stale while the next Oct-Nov payrolls report will not arrive until after the Dec FOMC meeting, so there is likely to be little to change FOMC members’ outlook then. Meanwhile, robust earnings growth from a mega AI accelerator company reflects strong US investment trends, and could keep US financial markets well supported, underpinning more support for the USD in the short-term.

USD/JPY is buoyed towards 157, with risks accentuated due to policy. PM Takaichi is expected to unveil her economic package on Friday, with local media suggesting that the package could total around JPY17trn (~0.7% of GDP), which is likely debt-financed. JGBs have also been selling off, with the 10y yield near 1.8%, marking its highest since 2008. Risks of a fiscal shock from the supplementary budget cannot be discounted, while Katayama had also strengthened her warning over the JPY on Tuesday, saying that she is deeply concerned over extremely one-sided and rapid moves. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katayama and Growth Strategy Minister Kiuchi met with BOJ Governor Ueda yesterday to reaffirm a joint accord to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable growth. Given policy risks, we see a high likelihood of elevated JPY volatility, and investors could monitor intervention risks in the JPY and JGB markets.

USD/CNH has also rebounded towards 7.12, in line with the broadly stronger USD. The PBOC has adjusted the USD/CNY fixing modestly higher, but its sensitivity to the DXY has been falling in recent week, reflecting a policy preference for stability. As such, CNH could be a regional outperformer, especially if there are no policy easing moves and if Chinese equity sentiment stays stable. Markets are expecting no change to China’s Loan Prime Rates today, despite somewhat weak household credit data last week.

Advisory
We have revised our currency forecasts in our “Separate Paths: 2026 Economic Outlook and Market Strategy 2026” published on November 18 (PDF, HTML).



Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]





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