HKD rates: Volatile HIBORs
Plunging HIBOR rates.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse20 Nov 2025
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Front-end HKD rates plunged this week, with three-month, one-month, and overnight HIBORs falling to 3.06%, 2.28% and 1.06% yesterday respectively (from 3.47%, 3.06% and 2.09% last Friday). We have been suggesting trades on this eventuality, as we had estimated HKD rates to be too high (HKD rates: Tactical receive opportunities). Notably, HIBORs had yet to fully reflect the 50bp Fed Funds rate cut delivered since mid-September. We had found this striking as 3M HIBOR tends to move in line with USD rates with roughly an 80% pass-through. The HKD–USD 3M spread should sit closer to 100bps, versus just 40bps a week ago. With the differential at 82bps yesterday, we see further downside risks in the near term.



Liquidity has loosened as suggested by falling HKD 1D forward points. On the supply side, the Hong Kong government wrapped up this month’s bill auctions after issuing a total of HKD256.4bn between 1–18 November—an amount nearly five times the Aggregate Balance of HKD54bn. Supply pressure will ease ahead, with December issuance falling to just HKD2.5bn. Meanwhile, demand for HKD assets has softened amid profit-taking in the Hang Seng Index. Equity market activity typically slows in 4Q, particularly after a ~30% rally earlier this year. Turnover reflects this: average daily volumes have slipped from HKD286bn in 3Q to HKD230bn this month.


This episode of HIBOR retreat is unlikely to be a déjà vu of the zero-rate regime seen in 2Q25. The plunge in HIBOR was triggered by the USD weakness. DXY once fell to 96.8 in June amid global trade war, US’s fiscal worries, and worries over Fed’s independence. HKD hit the strong-side of trading band and HKMA sold HKD140bn into the market. In contrast, DXY has regained its strength at 100 levels lately and HKD has depreciated alongside lower HIBORs. HKMA could in turn buy HKD at the weak-side of the trading band and HIBOR could rebound thereafter. 



Tactical receive/pay opportunities are emerging over the next four months, though the window for carry trades remains narrow. HKD rates tend to be volatile from December to March due to seasonal effects—year-end (Dec), Chinese New Year (late Jan–mid Feb), and quarter-end (Mar). Beyond these distortions, we expect HKD rates to stabilise and the 100bp spread over USD SOFR to reassert itself from April 2026 onwards.

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]



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