Monetary policy divergences themes in JPY and NZD
Fed cut vs. BOJ hike vs. RBNZ pause.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee2 Dec 2025
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Despite volatility driven by higher JGB yields, USD/JPY should keep its sights set on monetary policy divergence this month. The firming of previously half-hearted bets for a Fed cut on December 10 and a Bank of Japan hike on December 19 should provide more credibility to Tokyo’s intentions to stabilize the JPY. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has become less worried about the impact of tariffs and is paying more attention to how the weak JPY could boost inflation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump indicated that he has made up his mind on the next Fed Chair. Markets believe that Kevin Hassett stands out as the only candidate who is confirmable in the Senate and credible enough to avoid destabilizing concerns about the Fed’s independence. Although Hassett has been closely involved with Trump’s economic advisers, he is considered market-friendly compared with more ideological contenders. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump may announce his Fed Chair pick before Christmas, potentially shifting policy expectations away from Fed Chair Jerome Powell toward the shadow Fed Chair.

Anna Breman began her five-year term as Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor on December 1. The government appointed Breman to restore credibility to the central bank by refocusing it firmly on its core mandate of price stability and financial system soundness. Former Governor Adrian Orr was criticised for allowing inflation to surge well above the 1-3% target during 2021-2023. An independent review in 2023-2024 flagged issues in risk management and governance structures (such as mission creep into non-core policy issues, opaque internal decision-making, and weak board oversight) that led to lost credibility.

Hence, Breman’s immediate job is institutional repair and mandate clarity, which the monetary policy committee has made easier last week, by signalling significant hurdles to more easing. Breman concurred with the committee that past rate cuts totalling 325 bps would improve economic growth and employment, keeping her focused on returning inflation from the top to the middle of the 1-3% target next year. Barring shocks to global risk appetite, NZD/USD likely bottomed around 0.56 last week, with scope to extend its rise above 0.57 towards 0.5820 (100-day moving average). 

Quote of the Day
““If you want something you have never had, you must be willing to do something you have never done.”
     Thomas Jefferson

December 2 in history
In 1929, the first skull of Peking man was found in the caves of Zhoukoudian, 50 km outside of Peking, China. Later dated roughly 750,000 years old.







Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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