Indonesia markets: Incoming data backs a dovish BI
Dovish Bank Indonesia
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao2 Dec 2025
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Within target inflation and softening export growth in October lay the ground for a dovish BI. Inflation eased to 2.7% yoy in November, taking the average year-to-date inflation to 1.8% yoy, near the lower bound of BI’s 1.5-3.5% target. Subdued rise in food pressures offset the increase in non-food segments, namely gold prices (reflected in personal care segment), higher airfares (as promotions ceased) and selected perishables, in Oct. Concurrently, passage of frontloading demand, slower purchases by China and supply disruptions at a key mining facility led October exports to contract 2.3% yoy, outpacing a fall in imports at -1.2% yoy, which left the trade surplus at a narrower-than-expected $2.4bn, nearly halving from Sept’s $4.3bn. Mineral fuels and palm oil exports declined on the year, while nickel, chemicals, and electrical machinery were up. Shipments to the US slowed to 7% vs double digit growth during the period of frontloading orders, while to Japan, Germany, India etc contracted.

Bank Indonesia had voted for a pause in November due to a weaker currency and correction in risk assets, whilst pushing for faster policy transmission. While the commentary was dovish, BI noted that global uncertainty had risen amidst the temporary U S government shutdown and unclear path of US monetary policy. Policymakers had flagged the need to be ‘data dependent’. The probability of a cut in December 2025 has fallen after last month’s guarded commentary, with markets likely to assess the likelihood of any change in Indonesia’s rates after the US Fed’s meeting/ commentary on 10 December, and its resultant impact on the rupiah and financial markets. While the likelihood of a pause seems to be rising at this month’s meet, we maintain our call for 75bp more cuts by end-2026, to align policy with the government’s pro-growth stance. Rupiah outlook and movement are likely to dictate the timing of the move. On the market’s end, the frequency of SRBI auctions has been increased again to twice from once a weekly earlier, effectively increasing the size of outstanding SRBIs; latest auction lifted the average SRBI rate by ~10 bps. IndoGB bond yields, across the curve, are off October lows, with a jump seen as providing attractive entry levels especially if rupiah retains its recent stability. 

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
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