China: External strength, soft domestic demand
China’s economic growth accelerated from 4.5% in Q4 to 5.0% in Q1.
Group Research - Econs17 Apr 2026
  • Industrial activity was well supported by strong external demand.
  • Domestic demand in consumption, investment and credit remained weak.
  • PPI turning positive reduces the urgency for near-term easing.
  • Implication to market: we now expect 10bps 1Y LPR cut in 2026 to reflect more measured policy outloo
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China’s economic growth accelerated from 4.5%yoy in Q4 2025 to 5.0% in Q1 2026, started of with a solid footing. Industrial activity remained well supported by strong external demand, while domestic momentum stayed uneven, with consumption, investment, and credit growth subdued amid persistent property sector stress and ongoing capacity reduction efforts. Higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions add downside risk to growth.

Trade

External trade momentum remained robust. Exports grew 14.7% yoy in Q1, despite a moderation in March amid Middle East-related disruptions. Strength was driven primarily by non-US trading partners, while imports accelerated to 22.7% yoy, as manufacturers increased purchases of intermediate goods in response to stronger export orders.

However, global trade uncertainty remains elevated. While a US–Iran ceasefire has eased near-term supply concerns, broader trade risks persist, including delays in high-level US–China engagement and the potential impact of the USTR Section 301 investigation covering 60 economies.

Industrial production

Industrial activity stayed resilient, supported by strong export momentum. Industrial production grew 6.1% yoy in Q1, despite ongoing “anti-involution” measures aimed at curbing excess capacity. Export-linked sectors performed strongly, with integrated circuits up 24.3% yoy and industrial robots up 33.2% yoy, reflecting continued support from “new productive forces” industries.

Fixed asset investment (FAI)

Investment sentiment remained cautious. FAI grew 1.7% yoy in Q1, marking the weakest first-quarter performance excluding the COVID period. Growth was driven by state-led investment (+7.1%), while private investment declined 2.2% yoy.

Real estate sector continued to weigh on growth. Property investment declined 11.2% yoy, with developers continuing to prioritize project completion. Elevated inventories (~33 months of residential turnover) weigh on prices and sales.

Retail sales

Household sentiment remained weak. Retail sales grew 2.4% yoy in Q1, reflecting subdued income growth and uncertain employment conditions. Precautionary savings remained elevated, while weakening property prices continued to erode household wealth effects, suggesting consumption is likely to remain subdued in the near term.

Loan and deposit

Monetary data remained soft. Outstanding loan growth slowed to a two-decade low of 5.7% yoy in March. Both corporate and household medium- to long-term loans declined, reflecting early repayments and cautious borrowing sentiment. The M2–M1 gap slightly widened to 3.4 ppts in March, but weak credit expansion suggests that recent liquidity support has yet to transmit meaningfully into the real economy.

Inflation

Price dynamics improved further. PPI returned to positive territory at 0.5% yoy in March, after 41 months of contraction, driven by higher raw material prices amid supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing capacity adjustment. CPI rose to 1.0% yoy in March, up from 0.8% in Jan–Feb, supported by higher food and energy prices.

Conclusion

Improving price dynamics are reducing expectations for near-term policy easing. External demand remains resilient, supporting industrial activity, while recent data do not indicate a material deterioration in underlying momentum. Credit demand remains soft, suggesting policymakers are comfortable maintaining a targeted easing approach rather than broad-based rate cuts. Accordingly, we revise our 2026 easing expectations to a 10bp cut in the 1Y LPR, from 20bp previously, reflecting a more measured policy stance.

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Mo Ji, Ph.D. 纪沫

Chief China Economist - China & Hong Kong 首席中國經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Nathan Chow 周洪禮

Senior Economist and Strategist - China & Hong Kong 高級經濟學家及策略師 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

 

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]


Byron Lam 林逢雋

Economist 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

 


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