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Southeast Asia has become attractive to investors lately, but so have other emerging economies. Recognising key headwinds, we still see room for substantial regional prosperity in the decade ahead.

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

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<p><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia has grown despite headwinds. &nbsp;Over the last three decades, the region withstood shocks from the Asian financial crisis, the SARS pandemic, a global financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic. And it stayed the course.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia grew, even as the China miracle siphoned manufacturing investment and jobs away from the region.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">In recent years, Southeast Asia has become more attractive to investors, but so have India, Mexico, and Eastern European countries.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">This is the right moment for Southeast Asia to leverage its newly improved investment climate and well-established, dynamic sectors.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Much of the world is bracing for lower growth because of higher interest rates, unsustainable government spending levels, trade protectionism, and the potential fallout from the US-China rivalry. But in Southeast Asia, tailwinds should prevail.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia comprises of six major markets and a handful of smaller ones. While there are important links between markets and opportunities to pursue regional approaches, each country&rsquo;s potential must be addressed individually.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">While many economists focus on FDI as the key barometer for confidence in an economy, we assign substantial weight to domestic investment. Most Southeast Asian countries are seeing robust growth of domestic investment, which underscores local confidence in the region&rsquo;s growth prospects relative to alternatives.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Effective government action will play a role in catalysing growth. The China model involves the state setting priorities and bending funding toward them. Execution occurs at the city and provincial levels through state-enabled &ldquo;hyper-competition.&rdquo; Entrepreneurism plays a critical role in fully realizing growth potential.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">We say, let&rsquo;s unfurl the mainsails.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">To read the full report, click here to&nbsp;<strong><a href="/pdfController.page?pdfpath=/content/article/pdf/AIO/082024/240801_insights_sea_outlook.pdf">Download the PDF</a></strong>.</span><br /></span></p>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Taimur Baig, Ph.D.</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chief Economist - Global</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:taimurbaig@dbs.com">taimurbaig@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Radhika Rao</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Senior Economist &ndash; Eurozone, India, Indonesia</span></h5>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Ma Tieying, CFA</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, &amp; Taiwan&nbsp;</span></h5>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chua Han Teng, CFA</span></h4>
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Asia

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We expect the bilateral India-Southeast Asia (with our focus on ASEAN-6) corridor to benefit from growing synergies and improving connectivity.

India & ASEAN-6: Scope to strengthen economic synergy

Drew Thompson on Taiwan from multiple perspectives.

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Some softening notwithstanding, overall expansion cycle remains intact.

Taiwan 4Q outlook: Cooling but stable

Kopi time with Taimur Baig podcast E135

The central bank lowered the LTV ratio, raised the RRR, and left the benchmark rate unchanged during the September 19th meeting, all in line with DBS expectations.

Taiwan: More credit controls and RRR hike

Vasuki Shastry on India&rsquo;s manufacturing future.

Kopi time with Taimur Baig podcast E134

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CIO Insights 4Q24: In a Sweet Spot

Alternatives | The Value in Bitcoin Vola

US Presidential Elections: Market Impact

Credit: The Trump Effect on Bonds

Space - The Next Frontier

CIO Industry Guide: August 2024

Asia

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

Research Library

India: Rate pause amidst strong foreign reserves, eye on oil

DACS: China & Hong Kong credit supported by stimulus

Singapore chartbook: Keeping SGD strength; balancing disinflation and growth

India’s 3Q GDP growth to improve

China: New round of stimulus

Chartbook: Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ)’s potential

US, Europe, Japan

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

Eurozone: ECB begins to loosen policy brakes

ECB hawks run into recession risks

Focus

India & ASEAN-6: Scope to strengthen economic synergy

Kopi time with Taimur Baig podcast E136

Macro Insights Livestream: Tuesday, October 15th, 4pm SGT

Taiwan 4Q outlook: Cooling but stable

Kopi time with Taimur Baig podcast E135

Taiwan: More credit controls and RRR hike

Kopi time with Taimur Baig podcast E134

Macro Insights Livestream

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