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Central bank meetings

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) (April 20): The PBOC is expected to keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00%, as growth picked up from 4.5% yoy in Q425 to 5.0% in Q126, indicating a firmer start to the year. External demand continues to anchor industrial activity, while domestic momentum remains uneven—consumption, investment, and credit demand are still soft, weighed down by ongoing property sector stress and anti-involution. At the same time, improving price dynamics have lowered the urgency for near-term easing, even as higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. With no clear signs of a sharp slowdown and credit demand yet to recover meaningfully, policymakers are likely to stay with targeted easing rather than shift toward broad-based rate cuts.

Bank Indonesia (BI) (April 22) & Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) (April 23): As Indonesia and the Philippines navigate a shifting global macroeconomic environment, their central banks are increasingly aligned in confronting inflation dynamics, capital flow volatility, and exchange rate pressures.

We expect both central banks to keep rates unchanged at 4.75% and 4.25% respectively. The Philippines faces a potential stagflationary shock this year, with growth witnessing a weak handover from last year, while inflation comes off a low base, and peso remains under pressure. Governor Remolona, however, signalled optimism on growth due to a likely pickup in government spending, thereby allowing the central bank to focus on price stability. In our read of the likely sequence (link) amongst ASEAN central banks, Philippines is in the hawkish camp, leaving the door open to modest tightening moves this year if price risks prevail, as retail fuel prices are prone to swings in tune with global prices. By contrast, BI is not expected to be in an urgency to tighten, focusing on financial market stability in the near term. Risks of an increase in retail fuel prices and resultant impact on inflation will be an important determinant of a shift in BI’s policy outlook.

Forthcoming data releases

Malaysia: Malaysia’s good exports growth likely extended for the ninth consecutive month at 14.0% yoy in March 2026, compared with 10.8% yoy in February. This expansion likely remained supported by robust growth in electrical & electronics shipments amid global artificial intelligence (AI)-related tailwinds. Oil & gas exports possibly benefitted from a spike in global energy prices following the escalation in the Middle East conflict, after a period of weakness.

Singapore: Singapore’s inflation data for March 2026 will likely reflect the initial impact of the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. We expect core and headline inflation to rise to 1.6% yoy and 1.8% yoy, respectively, in March, up from 1.4% yoy and 1.2% yoy in February. The increase was likely driven by a pickup in imported energy price pressures amid spikes in global crude oil, refined petroleum, and gas prices. This likely translated into higher inflation in categories such as point-to-point transport services, travel-related services due to airfare increases, and private transport, while upside price pressures in electricity & gas and food remain contained for now.

Hong Kong SAR: Consumer price growth is expected to ease from 1.6% yoy in February to 1.4% in March. While average gasoline prices rose by 10% during the month, softer tourist inflows weighed on overall CPI, following a seasonal spike in February due to the Chinese New Year holiday period. Mainland tourist arrivals fell from 152k per day in February to 103k in March, normalising after the holiday-driven surge, while departures by local residents remained elevated at around 340k per day. On the housing front, rental costs continue to moderate, with the residential property rental index easing from 4.1% yoy in January to 4.0% in February.

Taiwan: March export orders and industrial production data are due next week. Export orders are expected to sustain growth of over 40% yoy, while industrial production is projected to remain above 20% yoy—both broadly in line with the January–February pace. Global AI demand remains robust, as reflected in the recent strong earnings reported by Taiwan’s leading semiconductor firms. We remain confident that 1Q GDP growth will exceed 10% yoy, and our full-year GDP growth forecast of 7% remains achievable.

Japan: March trade and inflation data will be released next week. Exports are expected to register double-digit growth, supported by strong semiconductor demand amid the global AI boom. On the inflation front, CPI is likely to remain stable at 1.3% yoy, as the impact of higher global energy prices is offset by government subsidy programs. From an inflation perspective, there is no immediate urgency for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its April 28 policy meeting.

South Korea: Preliminary estimates for 1Q GDP are expected to show a rebound to 2.6% yoy, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter. Quarter-on-quarter momentum is also likely to improve, with growth rising to 2.8% (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) from -0.6% previously. Exports recorded strong growth in both nominal and real terms during January–March, driven by robust global demand for AI-related semiconductors and a surge in memory chip prices. Consumption growth appears stable in 1Q, with the impact of Middle East tensions on inflation and real income remaining contained and not yet fully materialised. We maintain our full-year GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, with risks to the outlook broadly balanced.

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