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We maintain our Singapore GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2.0%, following confirmation of softer growth momentum in 1Q25. Real GDP in 1Q25 contracted for the first time since 1Q23 by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted (QoQ sa), reversing the 0.5% QoQ sa growth in 4Q24. While the economy grew at an above-potential rate of 3.9% year-on-year (YoY), it cooled from the 5.0% YoY expansion in 4Q24. The data was little changed from advance estimates of 0.8% QoQ sa contraction and 3.8% YoY growth.
The global economy and financial markets, including Singapore’s, remain beholden to the US tariff roller coaster that will likely persist over the coming months. While the de-escalation in global trade tensions through the 90-day pause in US reciprocal tariffs (including that with China from mid-May) is a positive development, global trade frictions remain higher than pre-Trump 2.0. Significant uncertainties persist regarding ongoing US tariff negotiations and impending sectoral tariffs. We remain cautious, anticipating much weaker Singapore economic growth in 2H25, although the economy might hold up in 1H25. Deteriorating external demand will hurt outward-oriented sectors, especially trade-related firms. Continued trade policy-related economic uncertainty would weigh on business investment and hiring decisions, as well as consumer confidence.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 0.0-2.0%, after lowering it from 1.0-3.0% in April 2025. The ministry said that the global economic outlook remains clouded by significant uncertainty, with downside risks, despite acknowledging slight improvements in Singapore’s external demand outlook for the rest of 2025 compared to April 2025.
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