27-country macro risk analysis: Annual update
We update the results of our macro risk assessment exercise across 27 emerging market (EM) economies.
Group Research - Econs17 Jun 2025
  • Asia looks relatively healthy vs EM peers, despite China’s structural challenges.
  • Taiwan, South Korea, and most of ASEAN have some of the best scores in Asia.
  • LatAm has constantly had the worst scores, while some European economies have weakened across time.
  • Energy exporters rank well amid the hydrocarbon windfall in recent years, but face downside risks.
  • The risks faced by Asia and energy exporters would be understated as geopolitics is not captured.
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Below is a summary; For detailed heatmaps and charts, please refer to the PDF

Key findings:

  • EM vulnerability indicators have worsened in recent years, as the debt position, cover for foreign obligations, and savings-investment balance have slipped in many countries.
  • We find Egypt, Brazil, South Africa, Chile, Hungary, and Türkiye at the bottom of our rankings. They feature weak reserves and low coverage for foreign obligations, high fiscal deficits and debt levels, unfavourable savings-investment gaps, and some degree of currency misalignment.
  • EM Asia looks fairly healthy: Taiwan, South Korea, and the major Southeast Asian economies (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines) have some of the best scores in the region. Taiwan has consistently led EM rankings, due to high savings-investment surpluses, which contributed to robust reserves, alongside low government and external debt, despite high private debt. China, India, and Malaysia rank lower due to their weaker fiscal metrics, notably government debt, and high private debt. However, China and India have healthy external finances, partially offsetting their fiscal weaknesses, while Malaysia’s vulnerabilities are partly mitigated by sustained domestic demand, and ongoing structural business and fiscal reforms.
  • At the better end of the spectrum are energy exporters, such as UAE, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Their favourable rankings are broadly due to low government and external debt, healthy savings-investment surpluses and external buffers, alongside minimal currency misalignments. While they have benefitted from the hydrocarbon windfall in recent years, the 2025 decline in oil prices and the risks of a broader Middle East conflict pose challenges to their resilience.
  • Peru consistently sits near the top of our rankings due to its strong track record of macroeconomic stability, a stark contrast to several major Latin American economies facing significant vulnerabilities. This stability mitigates risks associated with high commodity dependence, and is reflected in solid external metrics (high reserves cover for foreign obligations amid low external debt), as well as low government and private debt levels.

To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist - Asean
[email protected]

 

Daisy Sharma

Data Analytics
[email protected]

 
 
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