Affirm Holdings Inc
The latest investment analysis on Affirm Holdings Inc
Group Research - Equities2 Jun 2026
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Company Overview
Affirm is a leading player in the fast-growing "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) space, which provides consumers with an alternative to traditional credit options, such as credit cards. By offering flexible, transparent loan options that can be paid over time, Affirm aims to make it easier for consumers to make purchases and manage their finances. The company's strong reputation and partnerships have helped to drive significant growth and increase its market share.


Investment Overview
Riding on BNPL adoption growth. BNPL continues to expand globally, offering consumers easy-to-access credit while helping merchants lift ticket size and conversion. Global BNPL volume is on track to grow at a double-digit CAGR through the end of the decade as e-commerce penetration deepens and AI-driven shopping creates new payment touchpoints. As the leading BNPL operator in the US - and the only player with a fully closed-loop network - Affirm is best placed to capture this tailwind.

Partnerships and Affirm Card driving faster-than-peers GMV growth. Affirm's deep integrations with anchor merchants (Amazon, Walmart, Shopify, Costco) and acquirers (Stripe, Adyen) have widened its distribution. The Affirm Card is now the standout growth engine - card GMV surged 146% y/y in FY3Q26, active cardholders reached 4.4mn (~16% of consumer base vs. ~10% a year ago), and cardholders spend ~3x more across the Affirm ecosystem than non-card users. We expect GMV to grow at a 27-30% CAGR over FY26-29F, supported by Card scaling, merchant expansion (515k merchants, +44% y/y), and international ramp via Shopify.

Agentic commerce, banking integration and bank charter unlock new TAM. Affirm's May 2026 Investor Forum laid out a path to USD100bn medium-term GMV anchored on three structural moves: (1) the Google partnership embeds Affirm's pay-over-time options into Google Search AI Mode, Gemini and Google Pay, positioning Affirm at the heart of agentic commerce; (2) Affirm Edge brings BNPL into bank and credit union apps (Fiserv, Old National Bank onboard), opening an estimated USD140bn debit-first TAM; (3) a pending Nevada industrial bank charter could lower funding costs and broaden Affirm's product set over time. Combined with deepening Card adoption, these moves position Affirm for durable GMV and margin compounding.

BUY with TP of USD88. We expect Affirm to deliver robust GMV growth fueled by Card adoption, Google/Gemini integration, Affirm Edge bank-app rollout, and a pending Nevada bank charter. Our valuation is based on 26x FY26F EV/EBITDA, higher than fintech peers, to justify its stronger topline growth in the mid-term.


Key risks:
Deterioration of customer credit profile, stricter regulatory supervision and loss of major enterprise merchant partners.

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Disclaimers and Important Notices


GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER 

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.  

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR.