Eurozone markets: Calm ECB with cautious undertones
Potential hawkish pivot ahead.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao20 Mar 2026
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The ECB left the benchmark rates unchanged on Thursday. While the guidance was balanced, the council was “closely monitoring” spillover risks from geopolitical tensions as against February’s “inflation stabilises at its 2% target”, setting the stage for caution and a potential hawkish pivot in the upcoming meetings if risk scenarios materialise. The ECB also noted that financial markets’ metrics for inflation expectations had moved up significantly over shorter horizons, even though longer-term measures were stable around 2%. We expect policymakers to watch for signs that the current supply-side shock is beginning to weigh on demand before taking action. Updated staff projections lifted inflation (headline and core) and lowered the growth outlook, besides releasing scenarios to incorporate the risk of sharp moves in energy prices. As a baseline, headline inflation is likely to average 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Growth forecasts were trimmed, with the headline at an average of 0.9% (-0.3% vs Dec) in 2026, 1.3% (-0.1% vs Dec) in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. Under an adverse scenario (oil & gas to peak at $119/bl and EUR87/MWh), inflation faces a potential +0.9pp upside vs baseline in 2026 and+ 0.1pp in 2025, which could rise to +1.8pp for 2026 under a severe scenario. To recall, inflationary expectations are lower and the benchmark rate higher than the starting point of the 2022 energy shock, which suggests that the bar for a swift pivot to rate hikes is higher than current market pricing implies.

 

Outlook: The ECB had maintained a relatively optimistic narrative on the growth–inflation outlook this year, but this stance is now being tested by spillover risks stemming from the energy crisis in West Asia. With recession risks appearing less pressing for now, price stability is likely to take centre stage in the policy agenda. At the same time, bouts of euro depreciation may amplify the impact of higher oil and gas prices through imported inflation channels. This dynamic introduces an upward bias to market pricing, borrowing costs, and benchmark interbank rates. Depending on the tone of the April policy communication, rate hikes could return to the table in 2Q-3Q, particularly if the conflict spills over into the next quarter. 

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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