Indonesia: Benign inflation, energy conservation plans
Tackling the energy crisis.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao2 Apr 2026
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March inflation was relatively benign at 3.5% yoy from 4.6% in Feb as stimulus measures offset fading base effects. The sequential 0.4% mom nsa increase reflected a lift in festive-related food pressures, higher utilities and firmer demand impulse due to Lebaran, but was partly offset by stimulus measures to boost demand. Passage of base effects from 2Q will normalise inflation, with the absence of an increase in retail pump and non-subsidised fuel products expected to cap inflationary pressures. Trade data for February resulted in a narrower trade surplus of $1.3bn, as imports jumped on capital goods purchases (supported by higher government spending) and non-oil & gas purchases due to seasonal drivers. China remained the largest source of imports, followed by Australia and Singapore. Exports registered modest growth, helped by shipments of crude palm oil (CPO), nickel, motor vehicles, and organic chemicals. BI is expected to stay on hold this month, while monitoring financial market stability, rupiah movements and risks of an increase in subsidised fuel prices (and consequent unanchoring of inflationary expectations). Bond yields retreated slightly in trade on Wednesday, though rupiah weakened past 17k/USD to a new low.

Unlike previous oil and energy shocks that primarily drove up prices, tensions in the Middle East involve both escalating costs and constrained supply, a combination that is likely to amplify the overall impact (Indonesia: Spillover risks from the Middle East crisis). The Indonesian government announced energy conservation plans on Wednesday, consisting of a) fuel rationing – subsidised fuel cap at 50l per day; 50% B50 rollout from July; b) civil servants to work-from-home once a week except in strategic sectors, alongside lower vehicle usage and reduced travel requirements, etc; c) review after two months; d) unsubsidized fuel prices held unchanged after initial expectations of an impending hike from 1 April; e) adjustments to the Free meal program (MBG) (potential savings: ~IDR25 trn; 0.1% of GDP). These measures are expected to result in budgetary savings from fuel subsidies (IDR 6.2trn; 0.02% of GDP), household fuel savings (IDR59trn; 0.2% of GDP) and potential budget refocusing measures (IDR 121–130trn; 0.4-0.5% of GDP). While these measures provide stop-gap support, they are not a durable solution if energy prices gain further. For now, authorities have opted to absorb the initial shock from global energy prices to protect consumers’ purchasing power. However, a further rise in oil prices could increase the likelihood of partial passthrough to domestic fuel prices, potentially fuelling inflation and prompting a shift toward tighter policy.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
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