USD Rates: No policy dilemma
Labour market reinforces Fed hold pricing.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow6 Apr 2026
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Labour market data released last week indicated that the US economy entered the Middle East conflict on firm footing. We would focus more on the decline in unemployment rate to 4.3% than the 178k jump in NFP (consensus: 65k) in March. As mentioned, NFP data has been providing more noise than signal over the past six months with figures swinging between positive and negative. Moreover, revisions have been sizable. Adjustments in the birth/death ratio amidst what is likely to be a much lower NFP breakeven rate (close to zero) have contributed to data volatility. Instead, we take cues from other data sets including jobless claims and unemployment figures. The upshot is that the Fed does not have to deal with a policy dilemma (higher inflation and weaker employment) just yet. US Treasury yields simply level shifted higher by 3-4bps across the curve. 

Meanwhile, the inflection in oil / yield relationship has been holding over the past week. Even as oil prices push towards USD 110/bbl, we note that 2Y yields are still meaningfully lower than the recent peak of 4%. Growth worries will increasingly weigh on yields if oil prices continue to climb. This should restrain the Fed (and other central banks) from turning too hawkish in the immediate term. That said, we are also watching the interplay with sentiment. Even as the Iran-US war rages, we note some tentative signs of stabilization in stock indices. Between firm data, lingering inflation worries (even if the war has a quick resolution) and a pullback in risk aversion, it is not obvious that US Treasuries have much room to rally. We are neutral on USTs in the immediate term at current levels. 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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