Indonesia markets: Markets eye index providers’ decision, fiscal run-rate
Awaiting MSCI’s review.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao9 Apr 2026
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Onshore markets continue to whipsaw. After a three-day slide to fresh lows, IDR rallied back into the high-16k handle on Wednesday, accompanied by gains in domestic bonds (bull steepened) and equities, on positive global cues. Testament to the central bank’s strong intervention presence, foreign reserves moderated to $148.2bn in Mar vs $151.9bn in Feb, back at mid-2024 levels. Earlier, BI had reiterated that IDR stability was its “top priority”. Adding to relief was index provider FTSE Russell’s move to affirm Indonesia’s Emerging Market Status and not officially place the country’s equities on the watch list. The index provider plans to closely monitor ongoing capital market reforms after the postponement of a March index review, with the next formal update due in June. Ahead of June, MSCI Inc decision on the equity market status will be announced at its semi-annual index review in May. Since MSCI’s cautious comments in Jan26, regulators have fast-tracked capital market reforms, including the exchange putting forth the list of companies with concentrated shareholding (of more than 95%) to meet transparency requirements this week, with assurances that such disclosures will be tabled more regularly. Market expectations are that these measures will help prevent a possible downgrade of the equity markets to frontier status, although it is still uncertain whether the exchange’s weighting in the emerging markets index will be reduced.

Separately, 1Q26 fiscal deficit stood at 0.9% of GDP according to the Finance Minister, breaking away from the traditional surplus at the start of the year as expenditure was fast tracked towards social welfare programs and capital needs, up ~30% yoy, while revenue growth trailed (yoy growth rate boosted by a low base). At the start of April, there were indications that the 2026 budget deficit might be closer to -2.9% of GDP vs previously assumed -2.68% to accommodate ~IDR90-100trn additional energy subsidies. This year’s energy subsidy bill of IDR 318trn was built on an oil assumption of $70/bl and USDIDR at 16500, both of which have been breached since Mar. With fuel prices held unchanged, pressure on the fiscal books is likely to be offset by budgetary savings, and energy conservation efforts (~0.5-0.6% of GDP) (see note). Govt also has a fiscal buffer through past surpluses as SAL, though its utilisation is seen as the last resort. Meanwhile, a fragile truce amongst the global actors in the Middle east conflict will keep domestic markets glued to developments, with IDR short-end bond yields to find support as rate cuts get priced out.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
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