USD Rates: Sticky inflation & fiscal worries
Likely steepening.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow9 Apr 2026
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The release of CPI data on Friday will be closely watched. Inflation expectations have had a sizable repricing since the outbreak of the Iran-US conflict, with 2Y breakeven still hovering around 3.2% (albeit some 20bps off highs as oil prices tumbled). Consensus is factoring in a 1% MoM sa (3.4% YoY) increase in March. We also note that the inflation swap fixings are pricing in an extended period of CPI hovering around 3% or higher. Judging from the adjustments in the 2Y US yields over the past few weeks, market participants are now taking a much more nuanced view to the Middle East conflict as an uneasy ceasefire takes hold.

We are a tad wary of the long end and see scope for steepening trades to be reinstated even as the frontend is likely to be stable. Investors should be assuaged that the US economy still seems to be on relatively firm footing. Given the low unemployment rate (4.3%), stagflation worries (and curve flattening) may be put aside for now. Longer-term worries on fiscal / military spending across major economies could return and weigh on longer-dated govvies. In our view, the more structural impact of the Middle East conflict is probably higher inflation and higher government spending. Economic conditions are arguably more akin to overheating (stable economic activity with higher inflation) amidst an energy-related cost push.

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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