Indonesia markets: Stimulus measures to keep a lid on inflation, eye trade data
More cuts ahead too.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao30 May 2025
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In a redux of start of the year, the government announced six domestic consumption oriented measures for 2Q-early 3Q, which will be a mix of discounts on transport fares, toll rates, and electricity tariffs, besides additional allocation of social assistance (basic food cards and food assistance for 18.3mn beneficiary families (KPM)), wage subsidy assistance (BSU) and extension of the JKK contribution discount program for workers in labour-intensive sectors. Timely budgetary disbursements towards these programs will improve its efficacy and boost purchasing power of lower income households, by extension helping to restrain further deceleration in 2Q growth momentum. Concurrently, these measures will help keep a lid on price pressures, allowing the central bank to lower rates further (DBSf: 50bp more cuts). Notwithstanding these demand supportive steps, we maintain our growth outlook for the year, as highlighted here. Meanwhile, after a delay of a few weeks, trade data for April is due to be released shortly, which will provide an early glimpse into the impact of tariff announcements. Frontloading of orders perked exports in 1Q, up 7.2% yoy, while imports rose by a slower 1.5%. March manufacturing PMI had slipped below the 50-neutral mark to a four-year low, reflecting a cautious outlook amongst firms. 

Separately, more details suggest that the fiscal math turned a corner in April, even as there is need for revenues to improve materially from current levels. The budget balance returned to a modest surplus of IDR 4.3trn in April vs a deficit of IDR 104.2trn in 1Q25, with spending at 22% of the full-year budget, while tax revenues reached 25% of the total. Finance Minister highlighted that that the weaker run-rate for revenues in 1Q deficit was a function of tax refunds, tariff adjustments, and income tax (PPh) 21 calculations, as well as individual tax payments, suggesting the government is hopeful that tax collections will improve into 2Q and 3Q. As dovish policy expectations were factored in, yields at the belly of the IDR govvies curve pulled back to a greater extent than the modest 7-8bp slip in the 10Y benchmark yield. Foreigners have been net buyers in the domestic bond market, alongside a steady presence of the central bank (owns a fourth of outstanding bonds) and local institutional names. Firmer demand dynamics are likely to keep a lid on the 10Y bond yield, keeping rates well below the 7% resistance level. 


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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