Korea markets: Implications of the election results
New administration favours fiscal expansion.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying4 Jun 2025
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The Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung secured a decisive victory in the June 3 presidential election, ending nearly six months of political uncertainty following the December 2024 martial law crisis and the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol. With this result, the Democratic Party now holds unified control of both the presidency and the National Assembly, reducing legislative gridlock and paving the way for smoother policy implementation.

An expansionary fiscal policy is likely under the new administration. President-elect Lee has pledged a supplementary budget aimed at supporting households, aiding SMEs, expanding public housing, and investing in strategic future industries such as AI and semiconductors. While fiscal stimulus could provide a boost to domestic growth, it may also raise concerns about rising public debt levels. For the bond market, the expectation of increased government bond issuance could put upward pressure on long-term KTB yields.

Trade policy may face a recalibration. During his campaign, Lee emphasized the need to prioritize South Korea’s economic interests in trade negotiations with the US, cautioning against rushed deals and excessive concessions. He also signaled a desire to reduce reliance on the US market by strengthening trade ties with China, Europe, and other regions. Optimism around trade negotiations/tariff suspensions has supported recent strength in the KRW and KOSPI; any delay or uncertainty in trade policy could dampen market sentiment.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]


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