Taiwan: CBC keeps door open for monetary easing
Dovish CBC rate hold.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying19 Sep 2025
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At its meeting on September 18, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left the benchmark rate unchanged at 2.00%, maintaining the reserve requirement ratio and loan-to-value ratios as well. The CBC slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast from 1.81% to 1.75%, while significantly upgrading its GDP growth forecast for the same year from 3.05% to 4.55%. For 2026, inflation is projected to ease further to 1.66%, with GDP growth expected to slow to 2.68%.
 

Amid growing concerns over reciprocal tariffs affecting traditional industries and credit controls weighing on the property market, the CBC governor emphasized the central bank’s commitment to maintaining ample liquidity through open market operations. He also noted that banks will be given more flexibility in managing real estate loans — for instance, more time to adjust loan concentration ratios, particularly when increases are due to lending to first-time homebuyers or urban renewal projects.

 

Looking ahead, the governor left the door open to potential rate cuts, stating that inflation is clearly trending downward, and tying rate cuts strictly to inflation falling below 1.5% would be too rigid. He also said that the outlook for moderate economic growth must be reassessed on a quarterly basis, citing risks from potential Section 232 tariffs and a slowdown in the key ICT sector, a cornerstone of Taiwan’s economy. These factors suggest the possibility of a rate cut within the next 12 months, with the earliest likely timing being December 2025.

 

There was no clear signal of any imminent relaxation in credit control measures. The CBC remains focused on monitoring the real estate loan concentration ratio, currently at 36.7%, as it aims to bring it down to its target range of 35–36% to safeguard financial stability. A meaningful easing of credit control measures may not occur until 1H 2026.


Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]



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