USD Rates: Making sense of the latest sell-off
A more neutral outlook.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow14 Nov 2025
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USD assets sold off across the board last night as investors rethought the Fed's forward path. Several Fed officials (Alberto Musalem, Beth Hammock and Neel Kashkari) indicated uncertainties over December's cut, echoing Fed Chair Powell's message last month. Accordingly, Fed cut odds has since dropped to 50%, nudging up shorter-term yields in the process. Meanwhile, the long-end was negatively impacted by the 1bp tail in the 30Y auction. Investors, who have become a tad more cautious on equities, brought the S&P 500 down by 1.6% (tech stocks bore the brunt of the selloff) overnight. Interestingly, the combination of risk aversion (declining stocks, wider credit spreads) and rising UST yields did not support the USD. Last night's trading action became a case of selling America. Widening out to the other asset classes, gold did not assume its role as a haven while XBTUSD temporarily dipped below USD 100k. Investors are probably caught in the cross currents of several themes – overvalued US equities, K-shaped US economy, uncertain path for the Fed – thereby resulting in this odd trading dynamic. Current hawkish Fed rhetoric probably reflects unease to cut further amidst limited official data and the need for optionality in December. A somewhat weak set of labour market data would probably be sufficient to nudge the Fed into a hawkish cut at the next meeting. We reiterate that 2Y UST yields above 3.6% would look a tad high.  

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 

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