Central bank meetings

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) (Aug 28): The Philippine central bank, BSP, is expected to lower the benchmark rate by 25bp to 5%. Despite stronger-than-expected growth in 2Q25, Governor Remolona maintained his dovish guidance in recent comments. Inflation remains on a firm downward trajectory, slowing to 0.9% yoy in July, leaving a significant real rate buffer of over 400bp. Beyond the cut in August, we expect one more reduction in 4Q25, as policymakers tap a period of soft inflation to take a more growth-supportive stance. Year-to-date, the peso is marginally stronger than the dollar, keeping a cap on imported pressures, helped also by benign crude prices.

Bank of Korea (Aug 28): The BOK is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% at this meeting, while leaving the door open for one final rate cut later this year. The central bank is also likely to maintain its 2025 GDP growth and CPI forecasts at around 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively, with only minor adjustments, if any. The recent trade agreement with the US, early signs of a recovery in domestic demand, and the rollout of fiscal stimulus have reduced the urgency for further easing. At the same time, the BOK may want to ensure that the cooling in the property and loan markets is proceeding in a sustainable manner. The timing of the Fed’s rate cuts and their implications for capital flows and the KRW will also likely be factored into the BOK’s decision-making. We continue to expect one final 25bps rate cut later this year, once the impact of tariffs on exports becomes clearer, the property market softens further, and the Fed begins to ease policy.

Forthcoming data releases

Singapore: We foresee ongoing contained inflation in Singapore and anticipate easing industrial production (IP) in July 2025. We expect stable and low core and headline inflation of 0.6% YoY and 0.8% YoY, respectively, in July, unchanged from the rates in the previous two months. This was due to continued modest imported price pressures amid soft global commodity prices and ongoing Singapore dollar appreciation, as well as contained pass-through of business costs to consumer prices, amid dampened domestic labour cost pressures from restrained wage increments due to cautious business sentiment.

IP likely remained volatile amid ongoing US tariff uncertainty, and we expect weaker growth of 0.5% YoY in July 2025, compared to a strong 8.0% YoY expansion in June. Base effects will be increasingly adverse starting from July. Electronics output likely eased, aligned with slower electronics domestic exports in July and a higher base from a year ago. Biomedical manufacturing cooled despite a low base from a year ago. General manufacturing remained stuck in contraction. Transport engineering likely remained a bright spot amid continued demand for aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul.

Hong Kong SAR: Exports growth is expected to accelerate from 11.9%yoy in June to 12.4% in July, reflecting the resilience of China’s external sector. China’s exports rose from 5.8%yoy in June to 7.2% in July, supported by frontloading activities during the US–China trade truce. Hong Kong stands to benefit, as Chinese electronics products account for around 70% of its total re-exports. On the imports side, growth is projected to rise from 11.1%yoy in June to 12.3% in July, driven by improving domestic demand. Despite headline CPI easing to 1.0%, the pace of price declines in basic food, clothing & footwear, and durable goods narrowed in July.

India: We expect 1QFY26 (Apr-Jun25) growth to rise 6.6% yoy rise, based on our GDP nowcast model, moderating from the quarter before. GVA growth is likely to be closer to 6.3%. The bulk of the support will show in the strong pick-up in government spending after the election-related slowdown in the previous year, accompanied by steady service sector output, resilient rural demand in anticipation of a good monsoon, and better farm production. Industrial output, however, moderated in this period. Deceleration in inflation was likely supportive of real purchasing power, though weaker growth in personal loans, and delayed transmission to borrowing costs besides industry-specific employment soft spots point to a modest pick-up in urban demand. With external trade set to be impacted by tariff-led headwinds, domestic anchors will uphold economic growth.

Taiwan: July industrial production is expected to moderate to around 15% y/y, down from 18.6% in June. The front-loading of trade ahead of the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs may have already peaked. Several leading indicators suggest a softening in 3Q, including manufacturing PMI, capital goods imports, and export orders—which grew by 15.2% y/y in July, down from 24.6% in June. Our full-year GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.0%, reflecting a slowdown in the second half offset by strong gains in the first half.


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