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Central bank meetings

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) (Oct 14): The decline of the DBS SGD NEER from the top of its policy band has aligned with our expectations, and we expect the MAS to slightly reduce the policy band’s slope in October. The monetary policy decision will be accompanied by slower advance GDP growth for 3Q25, which we expect at 2.0% yoy, within a muted inflationary environment. The growth deceleration in 2Q was due to cooling trade-related momentum, dragged by higher US reciprocal tariffs globally starting from August (compared to 10% during the pause period), fading exports front-loading, and partly owing to adverse base effects. The key modern services sectors were likely resilient, supported by bank lending, financial market trading activities, and a digitalisation push. Performance for the accommodation and food & beverage services sectors was likely mixed, as the former outperformed the latter. Domestic construction acted as a buffer amid support from mega infrastructure projects, hospitality expansions, and public housing rollout.

Forthcoming data releases

China: Export growth is projected to moderate to 4.3% YoY as earlier front-loading activities ease. Container ship deadweight tonnage at 20 major Chinese ports remained steady at 1.45 million tons per day in September, broadly unchanged from August. Despite a slight improvement, both the official PMI and its new export orders sub-index continued to linger in contraction territory, reflecting persistent external demand weakness. On the import side, growth is expected to turn negative, with imports declining by 0.7% YoY in September after a 1.3% gain in August. Weak employment prospects and slower income growth continue to dampen household confidence. Headline CPI is anticipated to fall by 0.2% YoY in September, following a 0.4% decline in August, as food prices rose less than the usual seasonal pace despite favourable base effects. Core CPI likely rose a tad, supported by firmer prices in industrial consumer goods amid the government’s ongoing “anti-involution” initiative.

Malaysia: We expect Malaysia’s advance real GDP growth to ease to a still resilient 4.2% yoy in 3Q25. The expansion likely cooled in external-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing and transport & storage services. This was due to higher US reciprocal tariffs of 19% (compared to 10% during the pause period) that became effective from August, and the faded impact from exports front-loading. Construction’s still-strong growth trend likely moderated further in 3Q, although non-residential activity remained supported by data centre-related investments. Domestic demand from household spending likely remained a crucial support for overall growth amidst a favourable labour market and income-related policies. In our view, external challenges and uncertainty from US tariffs, especially semiconductors levies, continue to the key downside risks facing Malaysia’s exports-driven economy.

Singapore: We expect a rebound in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to -2.0% yoy in September 2025, compared to the steep -11.3% yoy in August, underscoring trade volatility amid US tariff challenges and uncertainties. The NODX turnaround in September was likely driven by electronics, partly due to the fading of adverse base effects, and still resilient external demand supported by artificial intelligence-related developments and US tariff exemptions for such products. This was observed in the continued expansion of electronics new export orders. However, external demand for other NODX shipments likely faced ongoing headwinds from high US reciprocal tariffs globally that became effective from August. Non-oil re-exports (NORX), which are a better gauge of front-loading momentum, likely stayed on a moderating trend from their peak in April, in our view.

India: We expect headline inflation to slip below the RBI’s target band, due to a seasonal correction in perishable food costs, and disinflationary impulse from indirect tax relaxation on most goods categories, including essentials. Our forecast is for the headline to ease to 1.5% yoy, from 2.1% month before, taking the quarterly average to 1.7% slightly below the RBI’s projected 1.8%. Global energy prices have also been subdued, offsetting the spillover risks from a weak rupee, while precious metals continue to stay buoyant. We had published our updated RBI view in India: Rate pause, liquidity and credit growth. On the trade front, we expect exports to moderate, leaving a wide trade deficit at -$24bn vs -$26.5bn month before.

  Economics Team

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